Next Big Thing in IT
What is the next big thing?
This is the question all the IT developers, architects, IT investors and all IT visionary aliks are asking. To answer this question, we should trace back the history.
There are several threads of histories we can follow to look back. One of the thread seems to me is very significant, which is user interface or client technologies. At every turn of IT revolution, one way or another, user interface was always the most important deriving factor, many times, the determining element. By looking into the history of user interface or client technologies, and scanning the current time, I think there is a next-big-thing right in front of us now.Technology is not evolving forward on a straight path. It’s spinning forward in stead. At every spin, there was big pile of money sustaining the spin and deriving IT to next spin (IT investors smiling here). Here comes a short history.
Let’s start with DOS day (not that I don’t know there was Apples, but as I said earlier, let’s follow just one history thread). We’v got PC XT and later AT. But we can’t do too much about interface. We developers never took no as answer, of cause. Then there were all kinds of menu driven systems/api/framework developed for DOS. Many for performance reason (sounds familiar, hem) were written in assembly. So, the extreme DOS makeover is to have an application fully menu driven. Very cool and exciting! When menu systems become main stream, many applications were rewritten for better usabilities.
Right before the DOS menu driven interface reaching the state of perfection, here came the Windows. After first couple of years of struggle and resistance from DOS world, tide turned. Then came another big wave of application rewritten. At that time one question had driven software developers nuts was, did your system windows enabled yet? (I know your are smiling, sure you can replace ‘windows’ with, say, ‘web’ in recent history). Of cause there were not just rewrittens, there are many new breeds of applications born because of Windows. See the pattern by now? remember the key words: User Interface.
Then, it’s tool time. While developers were still enjoy Borland’s Turbo series tools and Mr. MS lag behind, there came PowerBuilder. It provided a kind of revolutionary way of developing windows application. It certainly gave another spin on the windows interface wave. Again, the usual thing happened, rewritten and new type of applications. Everytime I use the word ‘rewritten’, behind it is big stream of money, of cause.
Mr. MS wake up. Visual Basic and Visual C++ were born, PowerBuilder was fading out. I know, I ignored Borland thread. Borland gave the best tool but it had never given revolution. In other word, Borland never gave a spin in the IT history. So ignored. When VB was born, IT changed. There were skill hungry, big money, massive rewritten, new applications, etc. you name it. I know you would say, it’s like the Java thing in 90s. Who said it’s not!
Soon, fundamental technologies went back on stage again. The LAN and RDBMS technologies matured. Then came the biggest buzz word in 80s, Client-Server. You are right, massive re-architecting and rewritten followed. UI was getting thinner the first time. This client-server spin was much bigger than all previous ones. Really it was LAN and RDBMS gave IT its well-known househood, IT. Some people believe “client-server” had something to do with another big buzz words in 80s, “downsize”. Um…Money was spinning.
Finally, the Internet, the web, THE net. I think whoever is still working in IT knows what was exactly happening during this spin. The spin is bigger, the money pile is larger, UI is thinner, layers more, tiers more, etc.
One of the reasons that the spin was bigger was that there were many micro spins and each one caused significant rewritten happening. IT didn’t care that much about spending in this period.
It started with CGI, then all kinds of server side technologies came out.
CGI was bad and rewritten.
Apache mod plus Perl and PHP came out, rewritten.
IIS API was cool, rewritten.
ASP, um…, rewritten.
Servlet, oh God, rewritten.
JSP, my…, rewritten.
There were spin inside spin too.
Windows is bad, java is good, rewritten in Java.
Windows is good with .Net and let leave Java on server, rewritten.
ActiveX is bad, rewritten.
Java applet is bad, rewritten.
It’s indeed a exciting time. People may not agree with me, but I think it’s all about interface. Users don’t care about backends. Who owns interface wins.
Now what!!
The answer is: The UI will be thicker. The Rich Internet Application (RIA) technology is the next big thing. And, it will or it has already started another big spin forward. The money is ready for grab.
HTML is not enough, too thin.
Javascript is not enough, too loose.
Server side UI components (web part, .net, JSP Face, portlet, etc.) are not enough, too server side.
ActiveX, too MS.
Java applet, what is that!
Why server has to care every user’s click? People start thinking, what’s the reason moved everything to server anyway? Does those reasons are still the reasons? If not, what we do now? All those good ponderings lead to Rich Client technologies.
I’ll have another blog to round-up the RIA technologies. Currently Macromedia’s Flex technology is at lead. But, still, the battle field is up to drawn, the who is who is up to named, the big Mr. MS is up to threw in money but regardless, another big rewritten period just started. Take the opportunity if you could.